The AFL's anti-doping tribunal will release its verdict on the case involving Essendon, the AFL and the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority on Tuesday. The hearings began in December last year and concluded on February 17. Here is what is likely to happen on Tuesday, and the potential repercussions in what is already an ongoing saga set to cloud a third straight AFL season.
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What will happen on Tuesday?
The 34 players could be found guilty of being administered the banned peptide thymosin beta-4, the players could be found not guilty, some players could be found guilty and others not guilty. The tribunal may also rule on the architect of the 2011-2012 supplements program, Stephen Dank.
Who will make the ruling?
AFL anti-doping tribunal chairman David Jones and his panel of John Nixon, also a former County Court judge, and Wayne Henwood, a former VFL-AFL player and now barrister must determine to a "comfortable satisfaction" that a banned drug was given.
When?
The decision will be announced in-camera from 2pm in a room at Etihad Stadium. No members of the public or media will be in the room. The players will also not be there. Rather, many will be watching together via video link.
What about any penalties – if required?
That won't be decided on Tuesday. It is a day for only a guilty or not guilty call. The reasons for the judgment won't be released to the public while there is the possibility of appeals.
What's the current status of the players?
They have been provisionally suspended since November 14, 2014.
If it's guilty?
Players can accept their guilt, but it's unlikely that will be the case. The first step will be a directions hearing for lawyers to determine when a sanctions hearing will take place. Lawyers will also begin applications to have any suspensions backdated from what would be a maximum two-year ban. ASADA and the AFL will also put forward what they feel should be appropriate sanctions. These hearings could be done over a couple of days but could drag out if there are technical arguments. This would mean the players remain provisionally suspended and almost certainly will miss at least round one – unless the AFL agrees to lift the suspension. They also have 21 days to appeal to the AFL appeals tribunal and the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
If it's not guilty?
The players are free to play in round one. ASADA and the World Anti-Doping Agency could appeal to the AFL appeals tribunal and WADA to that same body or, if there are sufficient grounds, to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
If there are sanctions, what's likely?
Any guilty player faces a ban of up to two years. The players almost certainly would argue a no-fault or negligence clause, rather that they had been "duped". If agreed, this would slice a year off the penalty. Another discount could come from the delays in the case, for instance that the first round of show-cause notices weren't delivered until midway through last year (the Bombers self-reported in February, 2013), then there were the Federal Court hearings brought by James Hird and the Bombers. The players were not party to this action, although they were interested onlookers. ASADA had previously offered another discount for co-operation. That the players have been provisionally suspended for more than four months will also be taken into consideration. Overall, this means any suspension could just be for a few weeks.
What about other legal action?
As has been the case with former rookie-listed Bombers Hal Hunter, players – particularly those no longer in the AFL system – could take the club to court for exposing players "to significant risks to their health, safety and general wellbeing as well as the risk of using prohibited substances". Hunter's lawyers have also raised the possibility of "relief for breach of contract and negligence". Hunter has done this despite not being one of the 34 players given an infraction notice. Player managers of other players are also exploring their options. "Tuesday is the start, not the end of this whole mess," one told Fairfax Media.
What about the health of the players?
Long-term repercussions are still unclear, with players to be monitored in the years ahead for a range of substances allegedly given the players. Lawyers for the players are still unsure exactly what was given to their clients, the number of dosages and if those supplements have independent verification that they would not produce long-term harm. Dank has said he has a detailed list of what was administered but has opted, so far, to not release this.
What will happen to Dank?
Has been banned by the NRL from working with clubs in the league in lieu of the anti-doping suspensions of Cronulla players. If there is a conviction on Tuesday, the AFL will do likewise, while he also faces separate anti-doping sanctions. Dank maintains he did not give players a banned substance and even claims thymosin beta-4 is not on the WADA-banned list. He says he is preparing to launch court action against the AFL and other figures, including journalists, involved in the case.
If there are suspensions, can James Hird, one of the few key figures still at the club from 2012, remain as coach?
Yes, as he has the backing of Essendon president Paul Little and the Bombers' board. However, if he loses the support of the players, or the wider Essendon membership and influential coterie groups, that could change. The Bombers have worked diligently in recent months to restore their "brand" through a new slogan and by luring home club legends such as Kevin Sheedy and Matthew Lloyd. While their membership figures are strong, this task of restoring the club's standing in the sporting world will be even harder.
What about the AFL?
Influential figures could be subpoenaed if players take legal action against the Bombers and the AFL. The AFL has said the commission has conducted a full review of how it handled the case. It remains to be seen how much of that review is made public. League chief Gillon McLachlan has already said things could have been handled better. The AFL is also looking to work with other codes and WADA and make the anti-doping code more applicable to team sports, with a feeling much of the current code is focused more on individuals.
Big picture debate:
How successful Operation Cobia, which initially began in September 2011, has been. The investigation into organised crime and sport initially targeted the NRL before spreading into the AFL, prompting the ACC to release its findings on February 7, 2013, in a press conference dubbed the "blackest day" in Australian sport by Richard Ings, the former ASADA chief. Ings has called for a "root and branch" review of how anti-doping investigations are handled, and how all parties can better work together. The federal government may also ask ASADA to review its role in the case.
