I wonder whether 'they' would continue to say that when petroleum fuel inevitably becomes unavailable/unaffordable?

Some indicators suggest falling global conventional crude oil production is beginning to impede diesel supplies.

Some data suggests global diesel production peaked in 2015.

Global production of conventional crude oil reached its peak in 2008, at 69.5 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and has since fallen by approximately 2.5 Mb/d, with an additional 3 Mb/d fall expected between 2017 and 2040.

The level of conventional resources approved to be developed in recent years is well below the demand requirements in the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario, creating the risk of a tension in the market in the 2020s.

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An increasing proportion of global crude oil production is originating from 'unconventional oils', light oils that are generally bad substitutes not suitable to produce diesel and marine bunker fuels.

The relatively light density of US shale oil is unsuitable for making several of the heavier oil products such as diesel and jet fuel unless it is blended with heavier imported crude.

The US refining system is close to being 'maxed-out' on the amount of shale oil it can process, ill-suited for producing higher octane gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

As global conventional crude oil production falls further, global petroleum-based diesel and marine bunker fuel production will likely decline too.

A new International Maritime Organisation rule comes into effect on January 1, 2020, requiring all oceangoing ships to use low-sulphur diesel fuel.

Until now, ships have burned 'the dregs' of crude oil, relatively high in sulphur and other pollutants, because it was the least expensive fuel available.

Some energy analysts suggest the world's petroleum industry lacks the capacity needed to supply additional low-sulphur fuels to the shipping industry while simultaneously meeting the requirements of existing customers such as farmers, truckers, rail locomotive and heavy equipment operators.

In 2020, it's likely crude oil prices will rise, sending all petroleum fuel product prices higher. Diesel prices will lead, but gasoline and jet fuel will follow.

And it seems that the latest oil data from Saudi Arabia indicates the world now has significantly less (conventional) petroleum oil reserves remaining than conventional wisdom previously estimated.

Electric vehicles (EVs) are certainly now cheaper to operate and maintain than internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Experts suggest within the next five years purchase costs of EVs will reach parity with ICEVs.

Reduced running costs with superior performance, quietness and lack of pollution will make EVs a 'no­brainer'.

Norway, USA and China are understanding what is happening and encouraging the accelerated adoption of EVs.

Many Australian commentators are failing to understand the looming and urgent energy security challenges and ignoring the affordable solutions.

However, Australians are now talking about EVs and it's only a matter of time before EVs become as inexorably ever-present as solar panels and smartphones.

Geoff Miell

LITHGOW