Executive Director of the ACA Ralph Hillman said a financial analyst’s report suggesting minimal impact on the industry was based on patchy and incomplete data which did not assess the full impact of the CPRS on coal mine operations.

Specific coal mine emissions information on which the report is based, which is clearly fundamental to the adequacy of any assessment of the implication of the CPRS, is incomplete and “patchy”.

The Citi Investment Research and Analysis report Australian Coal Mining Under CPRS is based on public information sources for only five companies’ coal interests (BHP Billiton, Centennial, Macarthur Coal, Rio Tinto Australia and Wesfarmers).

“The ACIL Tasman independent study for the ACA on the other hand is based on 75 mines representing 85 per cent of Australia’s black coal production in 2007-08,” Mr Hillman said.

“It found that the CPRS could lead to the early closure of 16 mines in NSW and Queensland with the lost of up to 9000 direct and indirect jobs.

“The ACIL Tasman study included very detailed and actual data provided by companies on a strictly confidential basis to the independent consultant.

“This included all direct emissions, transport costs, electricity costs and financial data on a mine by mine basis.

“That study also included projections for various types of export coal based on forecasts by ABARE and 13 investment banks whereas the Citi report has only its own projection.

“ACIL Tasman’s modelling sets out in detail how it took account of the impacts of permit costs, electricity prices, the renewable energy target, and port and rail cost increases arising from CPRS.

“The overall results from the ACIL Tasman study are consistent with economic modelling of the impact of the CPRS on coal mining by three other independent research organisations including a detailed study by Access Economics for state and territory governments.

“ACIL Tasman did model the effects of CPRS’ treatment of coal on internal rates of return.

“It was found that changes to internal rates of return would range from reductions of about 0.75 percentage points to 15 percentage points and that this would significantly impact the economics of 16 mine operations.